Lai Ching-te to take office
Taiwan’s president-elect Lai Ching-te motorcade has just arrived at the presidential office.
Lai will be sworn into office on Monday, putting him at the helm of the self-ruled island as China ramps up military and political pressure on Taipei.
Lai will officially take over from Tsai Ing-wen, whose eight years in power saw a sharp deterioration in relations with Beijing over its claim to the self-governed island.
When Lai takes office he is expected to express goodwill towards Beijing in his inauguration speech, and call for both sides of the Taiwan Strait to pursue peace, a senior official briefed on the matter told Reuters.
China claims democratic Taiwan as part of its territory and has called Lai, 64, a “dangerous separatist” who will bring “war and decline” to the island.
Like Tsai, Lai is a staunch defender of the island’s democracy and in the past has described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence”.
Ahead of Lai’s inauguration, Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, which handles cross-strait issues, called “Taiwan independence and peace in the strait … like water and fire”.
Key events
The Guardian’s Helen Davidson and Chi Hui Lin are at the inauguration in Taipei. They have this report:
It is a sea of bucket hats outside the Presidential Office.
Thousands of people are taking their seats ahead of the ceremony, picking up gift bags containing inauguration memorabilia including a promotional hat.
People are excited, taking photos in front of the stage. In the general seating area it’s a mix of community groups and citizens who got tickets from a foreign ministry lottery.
Mrs Zhang, a invited guest, said she feels the audience today all, “feel the same way – rational”. She feels relaxed and a relief to give the country to Lai. She and her husband traveled in from Hsinchu, a few counties over.
There are road closures for blocks around the area, and security is very heavy. All attendees must pass through metal detectors and bag searches. Media had to arrive early this morning. As well as the usual local crews and correspondents based here there are dozens of outlets who have flown in for the event.
In the VIP section there are more than 600 people in delegations from multiple countries including 11 of Taiwan’s 12 diplomatic allies, and key international friends including the UK, US, Japan and Australia. Among the American delegation is the former secretary of state Mike Pompeo.
Most of the delegates attended a formal reception last night with Lai, VP Hsiao, and the outgoing foreign minister Joseph Wu. Lai told the crowd that today’s “peaceful transfer of power” was a milestone for Taiwan’s young democracy. He welcomed the delegates and said he hoped he could continue to count on their help to have Taiwan be a “force of stability in the region” and to increase its international participation.
Taipei has been buzzing with preparation in recent days – airforce planes and helicopters have been practising flybys over the city for the aerial formation show expected later this morning to congratulate Lai.
There’s also a giant blue horse. We’re not sure what that’s for yet, but it’s been seen before around Taiwan’s national day. The statue – which is about three storeys high, has a rainbow mane and breathes smoke from its nostrils – was created by a local children’s theatre.
Lai Ching-te to take office
Taiwan’s president-elect Lai Ching-te motorcade has just arrived at the presidential office.
Lai will be sworn into office on Monday, putting him at the helm of the self-ruled island as China ramps up military and political pressure on Taipei.
Lai will officially take over from Tsai Ing-wen, whose eight years in power saw a sharp deterioration in relations with Beijing over its claim to the self-governed island.
When Lai takes office he is expected to express goodwill towards Beijing in his inauguration speech, and call for both sides of the Taiwan Strait to pursue peace, a senior official briefed on the matter told Reuters.
China claims democratic Taiwan as part of its territory and has called Lai, 64, a “dangerous separatist” who will bring “war and decline” to the island.
Like Tsai, Lai is a staunch defender of the island’s democracy and in the past has described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence”.
Ahead of Lai’s inauguration, Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, which handles cross-strait issues, called “Taiwan independence and peace in the strait … like water and fire”.
Helen Davidson
The ADIZ incursions are part of Beijing’s repertoire of greyzone tactics, designed to intimidate Taiwan and wear out its defences, while normalising a heightened threat level. Other tactics have included economic coercion (suddenly banning imports of Taiwanese pineapples and groupers, for example), cognitive warfare (massive amounts of disinformation directed at Taiwan’s population), and cyber attacks.
On Friday Taiwan’s National Security Bureau revealed the number of cyberattacks on government websites had increased to around 2.5million per day, from around 1million in the lead up to January’s election.
But otherwise the NSB deputy chief Ko Cheng-heng said they had not identified any other irregularities to do with the PLA that could be a warning sign for Taiwan.
Despite Beijing’s strong distaste for Lai, the cross-strait relations temperature does feel lower.
This is at least partly because Beijing “does not want to give the US reason to intervene and it’s trying to appear less provocative”, according to International Crisis Group analyst Amanda Hsiao.
Speaking to a panel on Friday, Hsiao said China appeared to have moved towards different – and less overtly hostile – kinds of pressure. Some, like its recent moves to abandon tacit recognition of sea borders around Taiwan’s Kinmen islands and run coast guard patrols through its waters, are opportunistic.
But they also pose a new dilemma for Taiwan and its allies because they are harder to respond to.
“They’re technically within the rules,” said Hsiao, also noting Beijing’s engineering of Nauru’s diplomatic switch from Taiwan, and its legal but provocative shifting of commercial flight paths to Taiwan’s side of the median line.
It’s harder to respond to because there’s less of a legal basis for Taiwan’s response but also the international community’ response.”
How have tensions between Taiwan and China played out recently?
Helen Davidson
In the lead up to the inauguration, China ramped up its activity designed to pressure Taiwan, but analysts have generally not been more worried than usual about the level of tensions.
China’s military has for years been flying large numbers of warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, and since the Pelosi drills they have been regularly crossing the median line – an act that used to be highly provocative but is now quite common as Beijing seeks to normalised it’s escalatory behaviour.
The number of sorties dropped before the January election, but this week saw those numbers start to climb again. The highest numbers were seen midweek.
On Tuesday all 10 warplanes that flew into the ADIZ crossed the median line and five Navy vessels were detected.
On Wednesday 45 planes and six vessels were detected, with 26 of the aircraft crossing the median line.
On Thursday 27 planes and seven vessels were detected, with 19 planes crossing the line.
The swearing-in ceremony will begin in a few minutes, at 9.00 am local time. We have just heard that Lai Ching-te is on his way to the presidential office building.
The Guardian’s Chi Hui Lin has some more detail on who is in attendance at today’s swearing-in:
Taiwan’s foreign ministry says 508 foreign guests from 51 groups were expected to attend the inauguration.
There are delegations from all 12 of Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies including eight heads of the state. Other delegations are attending from the USA, Canada, Singapore, the European Union, the UK, Japan, Australia and Korea.
Taiwan lost 10 of its allies during Tsai Ing-wen’s eight years of presidency. All of them switched to China, which doesn’t allow its allies to recognise both Beijing and Taipei. Nauru was the most recent on to switch, making the shock announcement less than 48 hours after Lai Ching-te was elected in January.
Under Tsai Ing-wen’s governance, Taiwan-China relations reached their lowest point in decades, but at the same time Taiwan-US relations have strengthened, and Taiwan has become more visible in the international community.
Helen Davidson
Lai is associated with the “deep green” faction, which favours full and recognised independence. In 2017, he described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence”, a quote that has followed him ever since, particularly throughout the recent campaign. It has been used to bolster accusations by the opposition that the DPP government has worsened tensions with China. It’s a line he has since walked back, instead aligning himself with Tsai’s more moderate stance. “We have to be unified, continue to strengthen Taiwan, protect the democratic frontline and ensure Taiwan’s security,” Lai said in April.
Analysts and others who know Lai tell the Guardian they don’t think he has changed his mind, it’s more that he’s seen one of two political realities: that his earlier positions could now put Taiwan in more danger, or that they would be politically unpopular. Some say it’s a bit of both.
“Lai has become more mature in the way he fights,” says Dr Wang Cheng-kun, a former colleague at a hospital where Lai worked.
Dafydd Fell, director of the Centre of Taiwan Studies at Soas University of London says: “He’s a pragmatic politician who like most DPP politicians prioritises maintaining Taiwan’s de facto independence.”
Lai will be fighting on multiple fronts. Beijing despises Lai more than Tsai and the Chinese Communist party will be watching his inauguration speech closely, but analysts say it doesn’t matter much what he says – if they want to react they will find a reason.
“No matter what he says during the inauguration, China will always disagree,” DPP legislator Puma Shen told Reuters.
Who is Lai Ching-te?
Helen Davidson
Lai was one of seven children born to a working-class mining family in Wanli, a small hillside village near Taiwan’s north-east coast. His father, Lai Chao-chin, died in a mining accident when Lai was two, leaving his mother to raise them alone in the small house on the mining tenement. In 2023 Lai told Time magazine that the family’s hard life taught him a sense of determination.
That determination has taken him to the top of Taiwan politics. On Monday, Taiwan will celebrate the inauguration of Lai, its fifth president since free and direct elections began after decades of martial law. He will be taking over from Tsai Ing-wen, at a dangerous time in Taiwan’s history, with China’s threats to annex Taiwan growing in scope and seriousness.
Lai is preparing to take over as president of the self-governed island at a time of increased geopolitical danger and intense global scrutiny, but analysts and rivals say Lai is not the kind of leader to shy away from a fight.
They describe the 64-year-old as driven, compassionate and principled, but also stubborn and hot-tempered.
Lai, who served as Tsai’s vice-president faces a combative first term, operating without a majority in Taiwan’s deeply divided legislature.
There are splits inside the ruling Democratic Progressive party (DPP) on multiple domestic issues, and a significant divide exists over the issue of Taiwan independence.
What is Taiwan’s relationship with China?
Here is a refresher on some of what is at stake in Taiwan. At the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, the losing Kuomintang government fled to the island of Taiwan.
Since then, Taiwan has enjoyed de facto independence, growing into a vibrant democracy with free elections and media.
But the Chinese government claims Taiwan as a province of China and has not ruled out taking it by force, with unification a key goal of the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping.
The island’s soon to be former president, Tsai Ing-wen, has said Taiwan is already a sovereign country with no need to declare independence, but Beijing regards Taiwan’s democratically elected government as separatists.
Under Xi’s rule, aggression towards Taiwan has increased and analysts believe the threat of invasion is at its highest in decades.
Read more in our 30 second explainer by our correspondent Helen Davidson:
Welcome and opening summary
It’s 8.35am in Taipei and welcome to our live coverage of Taiwan’s inauguration of a new president, Lai Ching-te. I’m Helen Sullivan and I’ll be with you for the next while.
Lai Ching-te is from the incumbent Democratic Progressive party (DPP) and was elected as the new president in January, ushering in a historic third term in power for the party.
Lai had served as vice-president to Tsai Ing-wen, the current president, in a government that has promoted the idea of a sovereign Taiwan. His victory is seen as a continuation of that policy. Lai comes from a more radical wing of the DPP but has promised to follow Tsai’s approach to balancing the relationships with the US and China.
Shortly after winning the election, Lai said it was a “victory for the community of democracies” around the world. Referring to Beijing’s efforts to have the DPP ousted, Lai said voters had successfully resisted efforts by “external forces” to influence the election.
China had warned before Taiwan’s elections that Lai would bring “war and decline” to the island, making the lead-up to his inauguration a closely watched period, accoding to Agence France-Presse.
We’ll have more in moment but here’s a summary of what we know about Lai Ching-te – the incoming president of Taiwan:
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Lai Ching-te , 64, was president Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor, having served as vice president from 2019
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He is a former public health expert has been in politics since 1996
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Lai has long been popular; in 2014 he was re-elected as mayor of Tainan with a record-breaking 72.9% of the vote
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January’s national election was his second tilt at the presidency, after he lost a challenge for the nomination to the incumbent Tsai in 2019, instead joining her on the ticket as vice-president
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Lai has been described as more “green” (pro-independence) than Tsai, which had prompted some concern about whether a Lai presidency could worsen cross-strait tensions
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In 2017 he described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence”, but has since stepped back from the stance, and is now sticking to Tsai’s more cautious formulation on Taiwan – that it is already a sovereign nation with no need to declare independence. “We have to be unified, continue to strengthen Taiwan, protect the democratic frontline and ensure Taiwan’s security,” he said in April.
