It has been more than a year since the daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was seen in public for the first time, accompanying her father at a missile launch in Pyongyang.
Official photos showed a girl, aged around nine, wrapped up in a thick white coat, holding Kim’s hand as they walked and talked at the capital’s international airport, a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile primed for launch in the background.
Kim Ju-ae’s appearance inevitably set off fevered speculation that the world had witnessed the public debut of North Korea’s next leader – the fourth-generation figurehead of a dynasty that has so far been dominated by men since the country was founded in 1948.
Deciphering the meaning behind the performative politics of a state as secretive as North Korea is an inexact science. Reports of palace intrigue, purges and executions – and the hardy perennial of Kim’s health – have proved incorrect, particularly since Kim became leader in late 2011 after his father, Kim Jong-il, died of a heart attack.
North Korea has been understandably cautious about the succession question. For every theory that places the 10-year-old Ju-ae at the apex of the regime, there is another that insists she is simply a lens through which Kim is trying to soften his image, three decades after the death of his grandfather and North Korea’s founder, Kim Il-sung.
The Ju-ae as leader-in-waiting theory received a boost this week, however, when South Korea’s spy agency publicly identified her for the first time as Kim’s “most likely” successor.
“Based on analyses of her public activities and the level of respect shown toward her since her first appearance, Kim Ju-ae appears to be the most likely successor at the moment,” Cho Tae-yong, the next director of the NIS, said in a parliamentary report on 4 January. He added, however, that the service was considering “all possibilities” for the regime’s succession plan.
Since that November 2022 stroll along the runway with her father, Ju-ae has attended several major public events, with state media referring to her as her father’s “most beloved” and “respected” child. Affectionate terms alone offer precious few clues as to Kim’s intentions for his daughter; but references to her as the “morning star of Korea” and “female general” suggest she is being primed for a more official role.
In December, Ju-ae accompanied Kim on a visit to the air force headquarters of the Korean People’s Army – sporting leather coats and designer sunglasses – and to the launch of the country’s first spy satellite the previous month. She was present at a New Year’s Eve celebration at Pyongyang’s May 1 Stadium, where she and her father kissed each other on the cheek.
The sibling factor
Ju-ae is thought to be one of three children Kim has had with wife Ri Sol-ju – along with an older brother and a sibling whose gender intelligence services have been unable to confirm. According to some analysts, the presence of a son makes it unlikely that Kim, who marked what is believed to have been his 40th birthday this month, has anointed a female successor.
While still young, Kim – a heavy smoker – has a family history of lifestyle-related diseases and appears to have gained weight after slimming down during the Covid-19 pandemic. Concern about his health has lent more urgency to the succession question, according to Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute in Seoul.
Cheong said he “would not be surprised” if Kim collapsed tomorrow, such is the state of his health. By accompanying her father at key points in North Korean calendar, Ju-ae was “learning kingship and building a network”, he added.
While Cho’s report marks a shift in South Korean thinking on Ju-ae’s place in the Kim dynasty pecking order, the North’s propaganda machine has been more taciturn, refusing even to name Ju-ae in newspaper reports.
Last month, the Daily NK website quoted unnamed high-ranking North Korean officials as saying that it would be “impossible” for Ju-ae to succeed her father.
But here, as with so much in Korean political life, it may be possible to form a view by reading between the lines. Her appearance with Kim in the New Year’s Day edition of the state newspaper the Rodong Sinmun is part of a growing portfolio of imagery that point to Ju-ae’s dual value as a devoted daughter and the embodiment of a future North Korea whose people are protected by a nuclear deterrent and ruled in perpetuity by members of the sacred Mount Paektu bloodline – a reference to the Kim dynasty.
“Based on what we have seen so far, Kim Jong-un is trying to ensure the safety of future generations through the use of filial piety and to project the image of a responsible leader,” said Lim Eul-chul, a professor of North Korean economy and politics at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University in Seoul.
“He is even using his young daughter to solidify his leadership but, of course, this could also be part of the process of training her for the succession.”
Ju-ae v the patriarchy?
Lim acknowledged that women rarely feature in the upper echelons of North Korea’s decision-making bodies, but said Kim had subtly emphasised the contribution women make in a society still wedded to traditional attitudes towards gender.
In November, Kim wiped away tears as he implored women at a national conference of mothers to imbue their offspring with revolutionary spirit. It could also be argued that the three most important living people in his life are women: his daughter, his wife and his influential younger sister, Kim Yo-jong.
“Kim Jong-un will have to prepare for significant headwinds if he chooses Kim Ju-ae as his successor,” Lim said. “North Korean society, which is still dominated by patriarchal Confucian culture, would have to undergo a long-term overhaul to accept a woman in power. In theory, there are no barriers to [Ju-ae’s] ascension to the throne, but in practice, it will be a challenge for her to become supreme leader and survive in a male-dominated hierarchy.”
But, he added, “there is still a lot of evidence to suggest that Kim Ju-ae is his confirmed successor.”
