Ukrainian forces may be conducting ‘limited fighting withdrawal in eastern Bakhmut’
Ukrainian forces appear to be “conducting a limited fighting withdrawal” in eastern Bakhmut but continue to inflict high casualties on the advancing Russian forces, the US-based Institute for the Study of War says in its latest update.
Though the think tank says it is still too early to tell what Ukraine’s intentions are, the defence of Bakhmut “remains strategically sound” and that it may be pursuing a “gradual fighting withdrawal to exhaust Russian forces through continued urban warfare”.
Russian forces are unlikely to quickly secure significant territorial gains when conducting urban warfare, which usually favors the defender and can allow Ukrainian forces to inflict high casualties on advancing Russian units—even as Ukrainian forces are actively withdrawing.
The ISW said Russian forces will still need to fight through through Bakhmut city centre on the western bank of the Bakhmutka River, which is heavily defended and will favour Ukrainian forces.
Urban warfare in Bakhmut may further degrade already exhausted Russian mixed forces in a fashion similar to that caused by Ukraine’s fighting withdrawal from the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk line, which effectively ended Russian offensive operations in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in the summer of 2022.
Key events
Three Ukrainian missiles have allegedly been shot down by air defence in Russia’s Belgorod region overnight.
Vyacheslav Gladkov, mayor of the Belgorod region, confirmed the strike in a post to his Telegram channel and said authorities were working to understand what had occurred.
One man has allegedly suffered shrapnel wounds to his arm and been taken to hospital by ambulance. Additional damage had been done to powerlines and the facades of nearby buildings.
Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu has visited Mariupol, the city in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region captured by Russian forces last year after a months-long siege, the defence ministry said on Monday.
– Reuters
Within the first hours of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 25, 2022, the Ukrainian armed forces blew up a Soviet-era dam on the Irpin river to slow the Russian advance on Kyiv by flooding the surrounding area, turning it into a swampy quagmire.
A year on, the town of Demydiv is reeling from the flood that struck over 60 houses in the area.
Here are a few images from the town as residents grapple with their flooded community, the effects of winter and the ongoing war.
– AFP/GETTY
Ukrainian forces repelled more than 95 attacks by Russian forces on Sunday in several areas of Luhansk and Donetsk.
According to the latest update by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian forces launched 27 air strikes and four missile strikes in the last 24 hours and continue to target civilian infrastructure.
It reports that assaults on Bakhmut and surrounding settlements remain ongoing with 21 settlements in Donetsk enduring hostile shelling and that Russian forces have been moved near Nova Kakhovka in Kherson and in Crimea as a feint. It is believed this has caused frustration among Russian troops due to fuel shortages and a lack of faith in the effectiveness of such a manoeuvre.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian airforce conducted 12 strikes on Russian forces, with artillery and missile forces striking three control points, four “focus areas” and one air defence system.
It is also claimed that the Russian military has set up a base in Volnovakha in the Donetsk region where students from a local technical school have been forced to repair damaged equipment and vehicles.
Russia’s failure to advance according to its stated timeframes is likely to lead to increasing frustration amongst the wars strongest supporters, the Institute for the Study of War says.
The ISW says the grinding campaign to capture Bakhmut has forced millbloggers to shift to more conservative expectations for advancing Russian troops informed by “nine months of ‘highly attritional, slow Russian advances in the Bakhmut.”
Despite these lowered expectations the ISW says cost of taking Bakhmut and stalling advances elsewhere “suggests that Russian campaigning to capture all of Donetsk Oblast would be a year’s-long effort’”.
Russian forces currently do not have the manpower and equipment necessary to sustain offensive operations at scale for a renewed offensive toward Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, let alone for a years-long campaign to capture all of Donetsk Oblast. Meaningful Russian offensives around Vuhledar or elsewhere in western Donetsk Oblast are also highly doubtful.
Russia will have to mobilize considerably more personnel and fundamentally transform its military industry to be able to support such operations. The Russian military‘s likely continued failure to achieve a decisive victory in Donetsk Oblast will likely draw increasing ire from Russia’s ultranationalist pro-war community.
Ukraine’s defence of Bakhmut is inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, setting the stage for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive, according to the latest update by the Institute for the Study of War.
The attrition experienced by Russian forces in Bakhmut, and stalling offensives elsewhere, mean “the Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months”, the think tank says.
The ISW says the “significant numbers” of mobilised personnel near Vuhledar and in other operations suggest “Russian forces likely lack the capability to further reinforce the Bakhmut area significantly without pulling forces from another area of the front due to the lack of untapped reserves”.
Even if the Russian military take Bakhmut, the ISW says it would likely not be able to capitalise on this win and, combined with the “stalling Russian offensive” in Luhansk, circumstances are “likely setting robust conditions for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive”.
The Russian effort against Bakhmut does not further the Russian military’s operational or strategic battlefield aims, and significant Ukrainian defenses in the surrounding area undermine any tactical significance that capturing Bakhmut likely has for Russian forces. Ukrainian forces will likely have a window of opportunity to seize the battlefield initiative and launch a counteroffensive when the Russian effort around Bakhmut culminates either before or after taking the city.
Ukrainian forces may be conducting ‘limited fighting withdrawal in eastern Bakhmut’
Ukrainian forces appear to be “conducting a limited fighting withdrawal” in eastern Bakhmut but continue to inflict high casualties on the advancing Russian forces, the US-based Institute for the Study of War says in its latest update.
Though the think tank says it is still too early to tell what Ukraine’s intentions are, the defence of Bakhmut “remains strategically sound” and that it may be pursuing a “gradual fighting withdrawal to exhaust Russian forces through continued urban warfare”.
Russian forces are unlikely to quickly secure significant territorial gains when conducting urban warfare, which usually favors the defender and can allow Ukrainian forces to inflict high casualties on advancing Russian units—even as Ukrainian forces are actively withdrawing.
The ISW said Russian forces will still need to fight through through Bakhmut city centre on the western bank of the Bakhmutka River, which is heavily defended and will favour Ukrainian forces.
Urban warfare in Bakhmut may further degrade already exhausted Russian mixed forces in a fashion similar to that caused by Ukraine’s fighting withdrawal from the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk line, which effectively ended Russian offensive operations in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in the summer of 2022.
Opening Summary
Hello and welcome back to our live coverage of Russia’s war in Ukraine – this is Royce Kurmelovs bringing you the latest developments.
An update from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Monday morning suggests Ukrainian forces may be conducting a “limited fighting withdrawal” from eastern Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces are continuing to inflict high casualties against advancing Russian units but ISW says it is still too early to know how the situation is developing and the defence “remains sound”.
During his nightly address, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy hailed fighters in the Donbas region, describing the defence of Bakhmut as “one of the toughest battles. Painful and challenging”. Ukraine’s armed forces continue to hold on in Bakhmut but are coming under increasing pressure as Russian forces move to contest lines of communication and prevent resupply.
On Sunday Zelenskiy said the armed forces had repelled “more than 130 enemy attacks”.
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian special forces unit, known as Kraken, has taken credit for an attack on a Russian observation tower in the city of Bryansk which was destroyed using a kamikaze drone. There were also reports of air raids overnight with anti-aircraft batteries responding in Kiev, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.
In other developments:
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Zelenskiy also said “the world was strong enough to punish Russia for the war”. Ukraine would spend the next six months working to shore up the country’s energy supply against Russian attack, he said.
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Exiled mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, has claimed “hundreds” of Russian solders were killed in a Ukrainian strike on the city. There was no confirmation from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence and the Guardian could not independently verify the claim.
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The Russian army hit a command centre of the Ukrainian forces’ Azov regiment in the south-eastern Zaporizhzhia region, the Russian defence ministry said on Sunday. The Guardian could not independently verify this.
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Turkish foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said on Sunday that Ankara was working hard to extend the UN-backed Black Sea grain initiative. A Russian foreign ministry spokesperson indicated Moscow was unhappy with aspects of the deal, which allowed Ukraine to export grain from ports blockaded by Russia following its invasion.
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German chancellor Olaf Scholz told CNN it was “necessary” for Russian president Vladimir Putin to understand he will not win the Ukraine war, so negotiations to end the conflict can begin. “If you look at the proposal of the Ukrainians, it is easy to understand that they are ready for peace,” he added.
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The death toll from a Russian missile strike that hit a five-storey apartment block in the southern Ukrainian city Zaporizhzhia on Thursday has risen to 13, a local official said on Sunday.
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A woman and two children were killed in Russian mortar shelling of a village in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson, the head of Ukraine’s presidential office said on Sunday.
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Ukraine MP Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze told Sky News on Sunday that tens of thousands of Ukrainian children could have disappeared in what she described as “genocide”. Klympush-Tsintsadze said the children were potentially deported to Russia.
