Key events
*Djokovic 0-2 Ruud Djokovic hits such ridiculous lengths with his groundstrokes, but at 15-0 he slaps a forehand into the net … so sends down a monstrous serve to right the cosmic balance of things. But what’s this?! He spanks a forehand wide having won the chance to hit a winner, then nets, and Ruud has a break point! Not for long, taking control of the rally with a booming forehand that eventually incites an error … but again he goes wide on the forehand, so again, a chance for 2-0. Ahahahaha, a kicking serve out wide then a hellacious forehand winner down the line make deuce, but following an ace Djokovic nets. So we go backwards and forwards, a succession of game points spurned and saved – one with a gorgeous inside-out backhand return – then a forehand return persuades Djokovic to overhit, and under a lob at the net, he makes a total mess of what looks a straightforward overheard, bungling long, and Rudd in in charge!
Djokovic 0-1 Ruud* (denotes server) I guess Ruud blew Zverev off the court on Friday, and though that’s a far easier task than the one he’s about to attempt, it tells us he’s playing well. Djokovic, though, started like a train against Alcaraz, and if he can find similar form now – on the one hand, it’s a final, on the other he might not be as excited by the matchup – it’s hard to see how this is close. But as I type that, Ruud whips through a love hold although, on the down side, I’ve just noticed his awful trainers.
Here we go, Ruud to serve. The roof is open, but with rain forecast for later it might not stay that way.
Anyone else think Ruud looks like a McGann?
Djokovic gets a proper roar, so here’s an absolutely mind-boggling Djokovic stat: of his last 21 major semis, he’s won 20 of them. It’s an outrage.
Here come our players!
Ruud says it’s not easy to be relaxed. There are only four Sundays on which major finals are played, one of them is today, and being involves is far from a given. He’s excited, as you would be.
Email! “I’m back!” begins James Wilson. “Novak in three, max four sets (with Ruud maybe snagging the third 7-6 or 6-4). I am a Federer fan but I think the numbers don’t lie around Djokovic – greatest male tennis player by miles and it isn’t even close. Sure, he doesn’t pass the eye test (it’s why I prefer watching the ethereal Federer play) but if you wanted a man to play for your life, and you could choose just one tennis player, one, who would stay there three hours orv three days but get the job done – you would only pick one player – Novak (Fed would shank too many backhands and Nadal is too injury-prone). The chat around Novak being too mechanical is understandable but it mostly belongs to casual fans (which is the majority, let’s face it) who don’t really understand just how remarkable it is what he is doing. To outlast, physically, a man 16 years his junior on the clay and in the heat – this is testament to the intensity of the man, his supreme fitness and conditioning and simply knowing his body, and playing well within himself, never mind stumbling over the five rounds up to the semis, where he simply goes up several gears and Carlos simply could not keep up, once this happened. He is not used to being challenged. To every single point he plays having such intensity, so much running, so many angles, for his serve, a massively improved stroke the last year or so, or how he returns, with insane precision, every single time. There are no easy points facing Djokovic in a best-of-five format – he gives you nothing. He can also raise his level at any point he wants to – Carlos was playing as well as he possibly can for two sets but the price his body paid for it was visible at 1-1 in the third set. Novak? You always felt that he could be out there another three hours, no problem, playing with a level as high, if not higher, if and when he needed to.
And we have a situation that outside the US Open nobody born after the year 1987 has won a slam. Novak, Rafa, Fed and Andy, been so dominant that two generations of tennis players have been and gone, and even Alcaraz’s generation have no idea what it is to win a Slam and beat the best of the best in order to do so – Novak has simply refused to age, and Rafa before him – they’ve been so dominant, for so long, that they are 3-0 up in the first set before they even step on to the court in matches other than with each other. Carlos admitted yesterday that he was nervous – he was visibly frustrated to see throwing the kitchen sink at Novak – only (per Roddick’s famous quote) to have him come back with the bathtub. Everything comes up – precise, deep, kisses the baseline. No free points. For a guy with seemingly no weaknesses, Carlos maybe has this one (as do all the players of his vintage) – the first 30 mins of the first set against Novak or Rafa they play entirely in their head – before any serves, forehands or backhands are hit. And THAT is Djokovic’s greatness (and Rafa’s before them). He is about to win every Slam at least three times (he has already won them all, together with Rafa, at least twice). Even with their slams being 22 apiece, Rafa simply has never been that durable – his weeks at number 1 are negligible – while Novak has been there longer than any man or woman, ever, since records began. And having reached at least seven finals at each of the four slams, it is only fitting that he should win them all, more often, than any man, in the Open era.”
I agree with most of this. I too don’t think it’s especially close, but I do think Djokovic looked to be tiring when Alcaraz did, and I didn’t think he was necessarily going to win. But his ability to handle pressure and intensity told; Alcaraz wasn’t prepared for that because how could he be?
Trying to find reasons Ruud might win, Mats clutches at the US Open final – Djokovic lost to Medvedev in straights trying to complete the calendar Grand Slam. But even if there’s an almighty choke, I doubt Ruud has the weapons to take advantage over five – he can’t just serve well and win 4, 4 and 4.
More generally, though, what a fortnight this has been. In particular, I buzzed off Karolína Muchová, who I hope has announced herself as a serious force in the women’s game. Her mix of power and guile looks built to last, in every city, in every nation and her match against Aryna Sabalenka was the best of the competition, for 24 hours, because Djokovic v Carlos Alcaraz was, until what happened happened, the best sporting contest I’ve seen this year. If I continue this post any longer, I’ll start looking forward to Wimbledon, so I’m going to end it and stay in the moment, because what a moment it is: either history or shock awaits us.
from Lake Geneva to the Finland station
Asked to weigh-in on the goat debate, Mac equivocates, saying Nadal is best on clay, Federer grass and Djokovic hard. If you’re asking me to pick one, though, I’m going Djokovic – much as Nadal’s forehand might be the greatest shot ever and the beauty of watching Federer makes my soul sing – because all-round, I think he’s hardest to beat with fewest weaknesses.
So, what can Ruud do to win? Happily, Calvin Betton, our resident coach, messages in with yet more wisdom for me to pass off as my own: “They’re basically the same player but Novak is 20 times better at it. They both make loads of balls. Ruud’s career is absolutely mental. He’s won quite a few 250s, and has 3 slam finals now. And other than that he’s barely won a match in a 500, Masters 1000 or a Slam – and he’s been top five in the world for two years now. He gets unbelievably lucky with draws, has a terrible record against other top-10 players, and to beat Djokovic you have to be consistent and hit through him, which Ruud can’t. You look at the guys that have beaten him in big matches – Thiem, Del Po, Federer, Nadal, Wawrinka. They do it by hitting through him. Only Murray has beat him at his own game.”
Preamble
Greatness in sport is easy to detect but difficult to measure. Obviously there are numbers – 22 Grand Slams, say, or 387 weeks as world No 1 – but love is about feelings not statistics, and sport is so closely aligned with love the two are almost indivisible.
If Novak Djokovic wins today, he becomes the most successful men’s tenniser ever, out on his own on 23 majors – three ahead of Roger Federer, one ahead of Rafael Nadal – and the first to win each title thrice. Thrice! But to reduce him to those digits is to miss the experience of watching one of the most freakish athletes, competitors and intellects the world has ever seen.
Physically, Djokovic is perfect, a lean, honed, absolute specimen made of elasticated girders covered in purple velvet, but mentally he is even better. His relentless dedication to tennis – to himself – is both affirming and terrifying, his refusal to be beaten as inspirational as his desperation to win, and his ability to do the right thing, over and over and over again, is like nothing we’ve seen before. He is a genius of geometry and of spirit, a triumph of the human capacity for self-realisation and self-actualisation, and he’s nowhere near finished.
All of which adds up a tricky afternoon for Casper Ruud, who has no obvious path to victory. He does more or less what Djokovic does, just significantly less well, lacking a great weapon, unusual feel or top level that, if they click, can override what reality tells us is inevitable. But one reason we love this thing of ours is that once people start doing stuff, all sorts of other stuff can happen, and Ruud, playing his second consecutive Roland-Garros final and third Slam final in a year, will have convinced himself he’s ready to shock the world. Whatever happens from here, this is going to be epochal.
Play: 2.30pm local, 1.30pm BST
