Six months out from a general election, New Zealand’s politics sits on a knife-edge, with the Labour and National parties splitting the vote evenly in recent polls.
Polling from over the Easter weekend, conducted by Curia, showed Labour and National sitting at 37% each – up one point for Labour, and up two points for National. Their traditional coalition partners were sitting at 7% for left partners the Greens, and 10% for the libertarian rightwing party Act.
That would place the projected seats for a National-Act coalition at 59, marginally ahead of a Greens-Labour coalition of 57 seats. In that scenario, neither could form a government, and the most likely kingmaker would be the Māori party – likely to win three seats.
On Tuesday, prime minister Chris Hipkins confirmed he had met the Māori party to discuss the government’s legislative agenda, but said they had not talked about any potential election or coalition arrangements.
Other recent polling has also shown that there are likely to be just a few seats between the main parties. Polling by Roy Morgan from the end of March showed Labour on 33% and National on 32%. Under that result, the coalition blocs would sit at 59 seats for the right and 58 seats on the left, with the cross-benches once again deciding the outcome of the election.
The Māori party has so far not confirmed whether it would support a Labour-led coalition – but it has ruled out working with the Act party. Speaking to the Guardian in 2022, co-leader Rawiri Waititi said of supporting Act, if the country maintained current policies: “It’s a no. Absolutely. It’s a hard no,” and described it as “a party that is just actively campaigning against the rights of the tangata whenua [Indigenous people]”.
Act is campaigning for a referendum on the future application of the treaty of Waitangi, New Zealand’s foundational legal document which guarantees Māori rights and chieftainship.
New Zealand continues to face economic challenges, which could work against the incumbent government. The increasing cost of living is a central election issue, with annual inflation at 7.2%.
Roy Morgan’s polling showed high levels of economic pessimism. The majority of those surveyed – 52.5% – said New Zealand was “heading in the wrong direction”, a rise of five percentage points on the previous survey. It compared with 38.5% who said the country was “heading in the right direction”. Just 10% of New Zealanders said the next year would hold “good times” economically, while 56% said there would be bad times ahead.
New Zealand’s election is due to take place on 14 October.
