Boost for Rishi Sunak before local elections as poll suggests Tories could win two key mayoral contests
Good morning. With just two days left before the local elections in England, which could see the Consevatives lose half their seats, according to at last one projection, Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak have both had bits of good news to celebrate in the last 24 hours.
For Starmer, the ongoing SNP meltdown is a big bonus. There are no elections in Scotland this week, but one of the big obstacles to Labour’s recovery at Westminster has been the SNP’s dominance in Scottish politics over the last decade, and that is withering. The SNP is now looking for a candidate to replace Humza Yousaf as first minister and the former deputy first miniser John Swinney seems to be favourite.
I will report any developments on that today.
But there was good news for Sunak last night too. Local election results have a direct impact locally (it can matter a lot who is running your council), but in terms of national politics what matters more is the presentional impact. It is almost impossible to imagine local election results that will look like a triumph for the Tories. But there is an important difference between an unmitigated disaster, and a bad night with a couple of “silver lining” consolation results, and a YouGov poll last night suggests Sunak might clinch two of these.
It suggests Ben Houchen, the Conservative Tees Valley mayor, is seven points ahead of Labour, and on course to win.
A poll two weeks ago by another firm had Houchen neck and neck with his Labour rival, Chris McEwan.
And the new YouGov polling suggests that Andy Street, the Tory West Midlands mayor, is just two points ahead of Labour, which statistically means it is too close to call.
Previous polls have had Labour’s Richard Parker ahead in the West Midlands (by 14 points, one suggested).
This matters because, if Sunak were to lose both the West Midlands and Tees Valley on Thursday, it is hard to see how that would not trigger utter turmoil in the parliamentary party, and a probable leadership challenge. But if the Tories can hold one or even both, Sunak will be able to argue that electoral defeat is not inevitable, and that a Tory leader with a record of delivery can win. Margaret Thatcher pulled off a similar trick in 1990, when Conservative HQ manage to spin mostly dire results in the local election as a win because the Tories held Wandsworth and Westminster.
Of course, holding the West Midlands and Tees Valley would not for a moment alter the fact that national polling implies the Tories are on course to lose the general election very badly. But it might avert a spring leadership crisis.
The Conservatives are also having some success at dictating the campaign agenda. Stamer was on ITV’s Good Morning Britain this morning. Labour is campaigning on the cost of living. But Starmer spent much of the first 10 minutes of the interview being asked about trans issues (he backed the government announcement today saying trans women should not be treated in female-only wards in England), and then spent the rest of the interview fielding questions about Angela Rayner. He was being defensive, and clearly wanted to talk about something else. I will post more on what he said soon.
Starmer has a further campaign announcement coming later today.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Rishi Sunak chairs cabinet.
9.30am: The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities publishes homelessness figures for England.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
2pm: Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6, gives evidence to the Commons foreign affairs committee about counter-terrorism policy.
Afternoon: Starmer speaks at an Usdaw conference in Blackpool.
3pm: David Cameron, the foreign secretary, gives evidence to the Lords international relations and defence committee.
If you want to contact me, do use the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
Key events
Starmer backs government proposal to stop trans women being treated in female-only wards
Keir Starmer said his views on gender issues “start with biology” as he backed blocking trans women from female-only hospital wards and prisons in an interview with ITV’s Good Morning Britain, PA Media reports. PA says:
The Labour leader was speaking as the government proposed changes to England’s NHS constitution to give patients the right to request to be treated on single-sex wards, with transgender people placed in rooms on their own.
Starmer told the programme: “There’s a distinction between sex and gender. The Labour Party has championed women’s rights for a very long time.”
He has previously said that “99.9% of women” do not have a penis and in 2021 he said it was “not right” for Labour MP Rosie Duffield to state that “only women have a cervix”.
But asked about his response to Duffield’s argument, Starmer said: “Biologically, she of course is right about that.”
Asked if he would apologise to the Canterbury MP, Labour leader Starmer said: “I don’t want this to go back into this toxic place where everybody is divided.”
But he said: “Rosie Duffield and I get on very well, we discuss a number of issues. She’s a much-respected member of the parliamentary Labour party and I want to have a discussion with her and anybody else about how we go forward in a positive way.”
Asked how Labour would respond to transgender women who did not want to go on to male hospital wards, Starmer said: “We have to accommodate that situation as it arises, but treat everybody with respect and dignity … I do not accept this is an issue that cannot be resolved with respect and dignity.
“Where we need to make accommodations, we can make accommodations … As a country, we’re a pretty reasonable, tolerant bunch and most people know that there are a small number of individuals who do not identify with the gender that they were born into.
“Many of them suffer great distress and trauma. And for my part, I’m perfectly happy to say I would treat them, as I would treat anybody, with respect.”
Here is some comment on the YouGov polling from Tees Valley and the West Midlands. (see 9.30am) from pollsters and commentators.
From Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation, a polling company
According to (Conservative) MPs, the fate of Ben Houchen! and Andy Street on May 2 are key at the locals.
It is worth noting that Houchen’s 72.8% share of the vote in 2021 was the same % as the second safest Westminster Tory seat in the country – Rayleigh and Wickford.
— Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) April 29, 2024
According to (Conservative) MPs, the fate of Ben Houchen! and Andy Street on May 2 are key at the locals.
It is worth noting that Houchen’s 72.8% share of the vote in 2021 was the same % as the second safest Westminster Tory seat in the country – Rayleigh and Wickford.
I don’t think anyone is projecting 1 Conservative seat at the next GE. Any narrative that declares Tees Valley staying blue as a locals victory is not serious.
Furthermore, Houchen’s skin is only likely to be saved due the absence of a Reform candidate standing, Reform are standing in Rayleigh at the next election.
These are from the Beyond Topline psephology account on X
YouGov poll of Tees Valley suggests 65% of 2019 Tory voters sticking with Houchen – that includes don’t knows.
That would mean Houchen is keeping onboard 2x as many 2019 Tory voters as the Conservatives are nationally (where 33-35% are sticking with Cons with YouGov)
— J (@Beyond_Topline) April 29, 2024
YouGov poll of Tees Valley suggests 65% of 2019 Tory voters sticking with Houchen – that includes don’t knows.
That would mean Houchen is keeping onboard 2x as many 2019 Tory voters as the Conservatives are nationally (where 33-35% are sticking with Cons with YouGov)
Oh and by the way, despite that, this poll *still* implies a 20 pt swing from Tory to Labour (a 7 pt winning margin, down from 46).
That’s also bigger than the national swing since May 2021 (about 15 pts in polls), consistent with the proportional swing we’ve been seeing.
That said, Houchen’s baseline was pretty extraordinary in the first place. His winning margin in 2021 was far beyond what you’d expect for the area and reflected his personal popularity.
Yeah, to use mayoral contests as yardsticks for the parties, you need to isolate the party brand from individuals, such that the candidates are essentially unknown ‘generic Labour’ vs ‘generic Tory’.
East Midlands and North Yorkshire are the only Mayorals that pass this test. https://t.co/kuWDQ6WesJ
— J (@Beyond_Topline) April 29, 2024
Yeah, to use mayoral contests as yardsticks for the parties, you need to isolate the party brand from individuals, such that the candidates are essentially unknown ‘generic Labour’ vs ‘generic Tory’.
East Midlands and North Yorkshire are the only Mayorals that pass this test.
From James Kanagasooriam, the Tory pollster credited with coming up with the concept of the “red wall”
V.interesting numbers from @YouGov. Implying that Andy Street’s personal premium above the party has balloned from 6% in 2021 to 18% today. Houchen’s polling 51% in Teeside implies a similar personal vote vs 2021 of around c.30% above the party nationally https://t.co/TUmJUm3le2
— James Kanagasooriam (@JamesKanag) April 29, 2024
V.interesting numbers from @YouGov. Implying that Andy Street’s personal premium above the party has balloned from 6% in 2021 to 18% today. Houchen’s polling 51% in Teeside implies a similar personal vote vs 2021 of around c.30% above the party nationally
From Alastair Campbell, the podcaster and former Labour communications chief
Something almost sweet about the Tories trying to pretend these are the key votes on Thursday. Check out Kenneth Baker Westminster Wandsworth strategy back in the 90s. These spin operations only work if the media let them. Ps if Houchen holds on keeps the Teesworks corruption in… https://t.co/07Z0dFFk95
— ALASTAIR CAMPBELL (@campbellclaret) April 30, 2024
Something almost sweet about the Tories trying to pretend these are the key votes on Thursday. Check out Kenneth Baker Westminster Wandsworth strategy back in the 90s. These spin operations only work if the media let them. Ps if Houchen holds on keeps the Teesworks corruption in lights for the general and drags them all into it cos making such a big deal of it. They’re just not very good at politics
From Luke Akehurst, a Labour activist and member of the party’s national executive committee
Suspect Houchen or Street winning would be as double edged for Tories as Ossie O’Brien winning the Darlington byelection was for Labour in 1983 – it consolidated Foot’s leadership and meant an unpopular leader carried on to lose the GE by a landslide rather than being ousted. https://t.co/Eo5Cv34tYx
— Luke Akehurst (@lukeakehurst) April 30, 2024
Suspect Houchen or Street winning would be as double edged for Tories as Ossie O’Brien winning the Darlington byelection was for Labour in 1983 – it consolidated Foot’s leadership and meant an unpopular leader carried on to lose the GE by a landslide rather than being ousted.
From my colleague Jessica Elgot
If Houchen wins, it will be a bright spot for Rishi Sunak but frankly last time he won by 73% of the vote so any loss there would be extraordinary. But it might tell us something interesting about whether Tory vote in north east is a bit stickier than elsewhere of the 2019 wave.
— Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) April 30, 2024
If Houchen wins, it will be a bright spot for Rishi Sunak but frankly last time he won by 73% of the vote so any loss there would be extraordinary. But it might tell us something interesting about whether Tory vote in north east is a bit stickier than elsewhere of the 2019 wave.
From Dylan Difford, a supporter of the Make Votes Matter campaign
The probable outcome of the locals is that Labour’s PNS score is where it should be for their poll lead, Tories lose lots of councillors and a by-election, high levels of Lab-LD tactical voting. But because Houchen narrowly holds a 46pt majority, it’ll be a ‘mixed picture’.
— Dylan Difford (@Dylan_Difford) April 30, 2024
The probable outcome of the locals is that Labour’s PNS score is where it should be for their poll lead, Tories lose lots of councillors and a by-election, high levels of Lab-LD tactical voting. But because Houchen narrowly holds a 46pt majority, it’ll be a ‘mixed picture’.
Home Office has lost contact with thousands of potential Rwanda deportees, data shows
Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, has said the Home Office is “used to” losing contact with asylum seekers, after official figures suggested thousands of people it hoped to deport to Rwanda had stopped reporting. Jessica Elgot has the story here.
Boost for Rishi Sunak before local elections as poll suggests Tories could win two key mayoral contests
Good morning. With just two days left before the local elections in England, which could see the Consevatives lose half their seats, according to at last one projection, Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak have both had bits of good news to celebrate in the last 24 hours.
For Starmer, the ongoing SNP meltdown is a big bonus. There are no elections in Scotland this week, but one of the big obstacles to Labour’s recovery at Westminster has been the SNP’s dominance in Scottish politics over the last decade, and that is withering. The SNP is now looking for a candidate to replace Humza Yousaf as first minister and the former deputy first miniser John Swinney seems to be favourite.
I will report any developments on that today.
But there was good news for Sunak last night too. Local election results have a direct impact locally (it can matter a lot who is running your council), but in terms of national politics what matters more is the presentional impact. It is almost impossible to imagine local election results that will look like a triumph for the Tories. But there is an important difference between an unmitigated disaster, and a bad night with a couple of “silver lining” consolation results, and a YouGov poll last night suggests Sunak might clinch two of these.
It suggests Ben Houchen, the Conservative Tees Valley mayor, is seven points ahead of Labour, and on course to win.
A poll two weeks ago by another firm had Houchen neck and neck with his Labour rival, Chris McEwan.
And the new YouGov polling suggests that Andy Street, the Tory West Midlands mayor, is just two points ahead of Labour, which statistically means it is too close to call.
Previous polls have had Labour’s Richard Parker ahead in the West Midlands (by 14 points, one suggested).
This matters because, if Sunak were to lose both the West Midlands and Tees Valley on Thursday, it is hard to see how that would not trigger utter turmoil in the parliamentary party, and a probable leadership challenge. But if the Tories can hold one or even both, Sunak will be able to argue that electoral defeat is not inevitable, and that a Tory leader with a record of delivery can win. Margaret Thatcher pulled off a similar trick in 1990, when Conservative HQ manage to spin mostly dire results in the local election as a win because the Tories held Wandsworth and Westminster.
Of course, holding the West Midlands and Tees Valley would not for a moment alter the fact that national polling implies the Tories are on course to lose the general election very badly. But it might avert a spring leadership crisis.
The Conservatives are also having some success at dictating the campaign agenda. Stamer was on ITV’s Good Morning Britain this morning. Labour is campaigning on the cost of living. But Starmer spent much of the first 10 minutes of the interview being asked about trans issues (he backed the government announcement today saying trans women should not be treated in female-only wards in England), and then spent the rest of the interview fielding questions about Angela Rayner. He was being defensive, and clearly wanted to talk about something else. I will post more on what he said soon.
Starmer has a further campaign announcement coming later today.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Rishi Sunak chairs cabinet.
9.30am: The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities publishes homelessness figures for England.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
2pm: Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6, gives evidence to the Commons foreign affairs committee about counter-terrorism policy.
Afternoon: Starmer speaks at an Usdaw conference in Blackpool.
3pm: David Cameron, the foreign secretary, gives evidence to the Lords international relations and defence committee.
If you want to contact me, do use the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
