Key events
US law bans export of some cluster munitions – but Biden can waive rule
US law bans the export of cluster munitions with bomblet failure rates higher than 1%, which covers virtually all of the U.S. military stockpile – but Joe Biden is able to waive this rule.
Pentagon spokesperson Brig Gen Pat Ryder said on Thursday that the Biden administration was considering sending cluster munitions known as Dual-Purpose Conventional Improved Munitions (DPICM) that had a lower failure rate than older versions. He said:
The ones that we are considering providing would not include older variants with [dud] rates that are higher than 2.35%.
He added that “we would be carefully selecting rounds with lower dud rates for which we have recent testing data” from 2020.
Also in the aid package, expected to be worth up to $800m, will include munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and ground vehicles such as Bradley fighting vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers.
The package will be funded using Presidential Drawdown Authority, which authorizes Biden to transfer articles and services from US stocks without congressional approval during an emergency. The material will come from US excess inventory.
Why does Ukraine want cluster bombs?
Kyiv has been pushing for cluster bombs, arguing that the weapons would help in its counteroffensive by allowing its troops to target entrenched Russian positions and to overcome its disadvantage in manpower and artillery.
Until recently, Washington had resisted Kyiv’s calls, citing concerns about the weapons’ use and saying they were not necessary. However US officials have recently signaled a shift and a senior Pentagon official said last month that the US military believes cluster munitions “would be useful, especially against dug-in Russian positions”.
The US has so far sent more than two million rounds of its own stocks of traditional 155 howitzer munitions to Ukraine. A 155 mm round can strike targets 15 to 20 miles (24 to 32 kilometers) away, and Ukrainian forces are burning through thousands of rounds a day.
Yehor Cherniev, a Ukrainian MP, earlier this year said Kyiv would probably need to fire 7,000 to 9,000 of the rounds daily in intensified counteroffensive fighting, which would put substantial pressure on US and allied stocks. Tapping into the US stores of cluster munitions could help Ukraine destroy more targets with fewer rounds, and alleviate pressure on the 155 mm stockpiles in the US and elsewhere.
Proponents for sending the weapons argue that Russia has already been using cluster bombs in Ukraine, and that the munitions the US will provide have a reduced “dud rate” – meaning there will be far fewer unexploded rounds that can result in unintended civilian deaths.
The Biden administration is expected to make an announcement today on a new military aid package for Ukraine that will, for the first time, include cluster munitions.
Here’s what you need to know:
What is a cluster bomb? A cluster bomb is a weapon that breaks apart in the air and releases multiple explosive submunitions or “bomblets” across a wide area. They can be delivered by planes, artillery and missiles, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).
How dangerous are they? The bomblets are designed to detonate on hitting the ground and anyone in that area is very likely to be killed or seriously injured. Beyond the initial damage caused by the munitions upon impact, many bomblets fail to detonate immediately. Up to 40% of bomblets have failed to explode in some recent conflicts, according to the ICRC.
As a result, cluster bombs, like landmines, pose a risk to civilians long after their use. Unexploded ordinance from cluster bombs can kill and maim people years or even decades after the munitions were fired.
Human rights groups say that the use of cluster bombs in populated areas is a violation of international humanitarian law because they cause indiscriminate destruction. Sixty percent of cluster bomb casualties are people injured while undertaking everyday activities, according to Reuters. One third of all recorded cluster munitions casualties are children.
More than 120 countries have signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which prohibits the use, production, transfer and stockpiling of the weapons. Russia, Ukraine and the US have all declined to sign the treaty. Since the adoption of the convention in 2008, 99% of global stockpiles have been destroyed, according to the Cluster Munition Coalition.
Where have they been used? The weapons were first used in the second world war and at least 15 countries have used them in the years after, according to Reuters. They include Eritrea, Ethiopia, France, Israel, Morocco, the Netherlands, Britain, Russia and the US.
The US dropped an estimated 260m cluster munitions in Laos between 1964 and 1973. So far, fewer than 400,000 – or 0.47% – have been cleared and at least 11,000 people have been killed, according to Reuters.
Russian troops have used cluster munitions in populated areas in Ukraine, research by the Guardian has found, resulting in the deaths of scores of civilians. Ukraine has also used them in efforts to retake Russian-occupied territory, according to Human Rights Watch.
US to announce sending cluster bombs to Ukraine
Good morning politics blog readers. Joe Biden has approved providing cluster munitions – widely banned weapons known to pose a serious risk to civilians, especially children – to Ukraine.
The Biden administration is poised to announce a new weapons package for Ukraine today that will include controversial cluster munitions Kyiv has long asked for. US officials have said the military aid to Ukraine, believed to be worth up to $800m, will include thousands of cluster munitions from Pentagon stocks as well as Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles and an array of ammunition.
Ukraine believes the weapons would help in its counteroffensive by allowing its troops to target entrenched Russian positions and to overcome its disadvantage in manpower and artillery. But rights groups say that the use of cluster bombs in populated areas is a violation of international humanitarian law because they cause indiscriminate destruction. In a report on Thursday, Human Rights Watch called on Russia and Ukraine to stop using cluster bombs, and urged the US not to supply the munitions to Kyiv.
US officials have claimed that any munitions provided to Ukraine would have a reduced “dud rate”, meaning there will be far fewer unexploded rounds that could later result in unintended civilian deaths.
Meanwhile, the White House and state department have said the Biden administration did not sanction or support secret meetings that former top US national security officials held with the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and other Russians on potential talks to end the Ukraine war.
According to a NBC News report, former US officials met Lavrov in New York in April, joined by Richard Haass, a former US diplomat and outgoing president of the council on foreign relations, and two former White House aides. Other meetings reportedly included former Pentagon officials and prominent Russians thought to be close to the Kremlin.
Here’s what else we’re watching today:
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Joe Biden will leave for Europe this weekend. His trip will begin in London where he will meet with King Charles and the prime minister, Rishi Sunak. He’ll then go to Vilnius for a summit of Nato leaders, where Russia’s war with Ukraine is expected to be in focus. Biden will then travel to Helsinki for a meeting with Nordic leaders.
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Treasury secretary Janet Yellen is in Beijing today to meet with senior Chinese government officials during a visit aimed at improving strained US-China relations. She is not expected to meet with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping.
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Former president Donald Trump is on the campaign trail in Iowa, where he is due to address thousands of supporters in Council Bluffs at around 1pm. Trump is expected to use his speech to attack his main GOP rival, Ron DeSantis, for opposing the federal mandate for ethanol, a renewable fuel additive that Iowa leads the nation in producing.
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Florida governor Ron DeSantis said last night that he plans to participate in the first GOP presidential debate in August, even if Donald Trump skips it.
