Key events
Here are more photos from the GMB union picket line outside Amazon’s site in Coventry early this morning:
Germany confirmed on brink of recession
We have confirmation that Europe’s largest economy is on the brink of recession.
Updated data shows that Germany’s GDP shrank by 0.1% in July-September, matching the initial reading.
Ruth Brand, president of the Federal Statistical Office, says:
“After the weak development in the first half of the year, the German economy started the second half of 2023 with a slight decline.”
This follows stagnation in January-March, and 0.1% gowth in April-June.
Today’s data will do very little to end the debate on whether or not the German economy is again the sick man of Europe, says Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.
Brzeski adds:
In any case, the German economy has become one of the growth laggards of the eurozone.
This weak growth performance has a long list of explanations: there is the cyclical headwind stemming from inflation, still elevated energy prices and energy uncertainty, higher interest rates and China’s changing role from being a flourishing export destination to being a rival that needs fewer German products. But there are also well-known structural challenges, ranging from demographics to energy transition and not enough investment.
German trade union Verdi has called on members to go on strike at five Amazon distribution centres across Germany on Black Friday.
Silke Zimmer, the member for retail on Verdi’s governing board, said:
“Amazon employees have decided to rename Black Friday ‘Make Amazon Pay Day’”.
Verdi said work will come to a standstill from Thursday’s night shift and throughout Friday, with centres in Koblenz, Leipzig, Rheinberg, Dortmund and Bad Hersfeld affected.
This is part of a dispute that began in 2013 over Amazon’s refusal to recognise industry-wide pay agreements.
A spokesperson for Amazon said participation in the strike was low and the vast majority of colleagues were working as normal, meaning customers will receive orders punctually.
Amazon workers stage Black Friday walkout at Coventry
Some Amazon workers in the UK are on strike today to coincide with Black Friday – which is typically one of the company’s busiest shopping days of the year.
More than 1,000 staff at the firm’s warehouse in Coventry are expected to take part in the walkout, the GMB union said, amid a long-running dispute over pay and conditions.
Some people have already gathered at a picket line outside the site.
A protest will also be held outside Amazon’s UK head office in London.
Strikes and demonstrations are also being held in other European countries and the US, which unions say will be the biggest day of action in Amazon’s history.
Amazon insists consumers won’t see any disruption, and that its pay rates were well above the National Living Wage and the voluntary Real Living Wage, while benefits included private medical insurance, life assurance, subsidised meals and an employee discount
An Amazon spokesperson says:
“We regularly review our pay to ensure we offer competitive wages and benefits.
By April 2024, our minimum starting pay will have increased to £12.30 and £13 per hour depending on location, that’s a 20% increase over two years and 50% since 2018.
But Amanda Gearing, GMB organiser, called the walkout an “unprecedented and historic moment”, as low-paid workers took on one of the world’s most powerful corporations”.
Gearing adds:
“Amazon has lost nearly thirty days to strike action in the UK this year alone.
“Despite that, Amazon bosses are desperate to claim it will be business as usual for Amazon and Amazon customers this Black Friday.
“The truth is that this Black Friday will see the largest day of industrial disruption in Amazon’s thirty-year history.
“Coventry is the beating heart of Amazon’s distribution network; strike action on Black Friday will ripple throughout the company’s UK logistics.
“With industrial action escalating and workers joining strike action in Europe and the USA, it’s clear that Coventry workers are inspiring Amazon workers worldwide to fight for their share of company profits.”
Staff in Coventry have held other strikes days already this autumn, In January, workers at the site – who have complained that they have been treated “like robots” – began a strike, the first time the corporation has faced industrial action in the UK.
Introduction: UK consumer confidence picks up as Black Friday begins
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
UK consumer morale has jumped this month as inflation eases, giving retailers hopes that people will come out to spend as they make their Black Friday pitches today.
Market research firm GfK’s index of consumer confidence, just released has bounced in November, hitting -24 from -30.
People grew more optimistic about their personal financial situation, and the wider economic outlook, GfK explains.
Although it remains in negative territory, this recovers most of last month’s drop.
Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, says:
“Consumer confidence strengthened in November with improvements across all measures. Recent ups and downs in confidence have underlined the nation’s topsy-turvy economic mood as encouraging news about falling inflation and wage growth is offset by high personal taxation, alongside costly fuel and energy bills.
Although the Overall Index Score is still tracking firmly in negative territory, it is good to see that consumers are more optimistic about their personal financial situation.
This pick-up in consumer confidence could give the UK economy a much-needed pick-up, after growth stagnated in the third quarter of the year.
But analysts have predicted that Black Friday will be quieter than in previous years, as the cost of living crisis continues to hit household budgets.
PwC predicted last week that UK spending for Black Friday – when retailers offer discounts to spur festive spending – could fall by almost a quarter, to £5.6bn from the £7.1bn forecast in 2022.
A PwC survey found that interest in Black Friday has waned. It says:
The research shows that the greatest interest is from under-45s and Black Friday shopping continues to be predominantly an online phenomenon. Even so, interest for the under-45s has dropped by between 15 and 20 percentage points.
This year interest levels have also equalised between men and women, with men having been more enthusiastic Black Friday shoppers in the past. Overall, the proportion who don’t intend to buy at all has increased from 39% in 2022 to 56% in 2023.
Also coming up today
Music store HMV is making a Black Friday return to its former store on London’s Oxford Street after a four-year absence. It will be selling vinyl, clothing and merchandise from the site at 363 Oxford Street again.
In Sunderland, Japanese carmaker Nissan is announing plans to build electric versions of three vehicles at its UK plant. Nissan is investing over £1.1bn in the transition, which will see electric versions of the Qashqai and Juke, and a new version of its electric Leaf vehicle.
The agenda
-
7am GMT: German Q3 GDP report (final estimate)
-
9am GMT: IFO survey of Germany’s business climate
-
2.45pm GMT: ‘Flash’ PMI survey of US manufacturing and services
