Key events
German chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday pledged long-term security assurances to Ukraine but dashed Kyiv’s hopes for a swift accession to Nato.
“We have to take a sober look at the current situation,” Scholz told German lawmakers in a speech in parliament, adding the government in Kyiv had itself acknowledged the country would not be able to join Nato as long as the war was still going on.
“Therefore, I suggest we focus on the top priority (at the Nato summit) in Vilnius (in mid-July), namely strengthening the combat power of Ukraine,” Scholz said.
Berlin and its partners in the G7 and the European Union were working on long-term security assurances to Kyiv, he said.
“Our goal is … a sustainable military support of Ukraine, including with modern western weapons, and the strengthening of Ukraine’s economic resilience as it defends itself against the Russian aggression,” he said.
Damage caused by Russian shelling in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine.
Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Thursday that Moscow was considering a request from the United States to visit journalist Evan Gershkovich who is being held on spying charges he denies, the Interfax news agency reported.
A hearing in Gershkovich’s case is due later on Thursday.
Gershkovich, a US citizen, was arrested in March on espionage charges after Russia’s FSB security service accused him of collecting military secrets in the city of Ekaterinburg.
Gershkovich and his employer, the Wall Street Journal, strongly deny the charges.
He was initially remanded in custody until 29 May, but a court last month extended his detention until 30 August.
The US says he has been wrongfully detained and has called for his immediate release. The US House of Representatives voted unanimously on Tuesday for a resolution calling on Russia to release him, Reuters reported.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, will visit Russia on Friday, the Interfax news agency reported.
Grossi is likely to hold talks about the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.
The daily intelligence update from the UK’s Ministry of Defence today focuses on the Russian creation of a parliamentary committee to investigate alleged crimes committed by the Ukrainian government against juveniles in the Donbas since 2014.
“The Duma is almost certainly responding to the international condemnation of Russia’s deportation of children from occupied Ukraine since its full-scale invasion,” the MoD says.
“The move is highly likely both a form of ‘lawfare’ and contributes to Russian information operations, weaponising legislation by attempting to muddy the narrative around its own egregious actions.
“Messaging around children’s rights is likely an important communications theme for the Kremlin because alleged child deportations formed the basis of the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against President Putin issued in March 2023.”
There have been concerns that the Storm Shadow missiles could be used to strike targets deep inside Russia’s internationally recognised borders and after the UK announcement last month the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said Russia was taking a “rather negative” view of the UK’s move.
“This will require an adequate response from our military, who … will make appropriate decisions,” he said.
Just this week, Russia threatened to strike Kyiv’s “decision-making centres” if western-supplied missiles were used against Crimea.
Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, said on Tuesday that the potential use of Himars and Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Crimea would mark the west’s “full involvement in the conflict and would entail immediate strikes upon decision-making centres in Ukrainian territory”.
Those are seen to include the Ukrainian presidential administration and intelligence headquarters.
Vladimir Saldo, the Russia-appointed governor of occupied Kherson, suggested the bridge was targeted by Storm Shadow missiles. These are long-range cruise missiles which Britain confirmed it had provided to Ukraine last month.
They have a range of “in excess of 250km”, according to its manufacturer, the European arms group MBDA, significantly further than the high-precision US Himars rocket launchers which have been used heavily by Ukraine.
The shorter-range missiles have become less effective as Russia moves its troop and supply reserves further from the frontlines and the Storm Shadow missiles should allow Ukraine to strike at targets previously out of reach.
We’ll bring you more information about the bridge attack in Kherson/Crimea as soon as we have it, but in the meantime some background.
Ukraine is determined to retake the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. One of the key objectives of its recently launched counteroffensive is to cut off Russia’s so-called land bridge to Crimea and isolate Russian troops there.
Last year Ukraine blew up the Kerch bridge, which links Crimea directly to mainland Russia.
Reports suggest the bridge struck this time was the Chonhar bridge, which crosses the strait between Crimea and occupied Kherson.
Two people have died after an explosion and subsequent fire at a 16-storey building in the Dnipro district of the capital Kyiv, mayor Vitaliy Klitschko has said on the Telegram messaging app.
Another two people were in hospital and another two were treated at the scene, he said. Experts were investigating the cause of the explosion, he said. The Kyiv Independent reported that the cause was a powerful gas explosion.
The ISW analysis adds that “the observation that current Ukrainian operations may have objectives that are not simply territorial is an important one”.
Ukrainian forces may be conducting several offensive operations across the entire theater in order to gradually attrit Russian forces and set conditions for a future main effort.
Losses are inevitable on both sides, but careful operational planning on the Ukrainian side likely seeks to mitigate and balance this reality with the equally important observation that the degradation of Russian manpower is a valuable objective.
Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin voiced his concern that Russian forces are suffering major manpower and equipment losses as a result of ongoing Ukrainian attacks, especially in southern Ukraine.
The success of Ukrainian counteroffensives should not be judged solely on day-to-day changes in control of terrain, as the wider operational intentions of Ukrainian attacks along the entire frontline may be premised on gradually degrading, exhausting, and expending Russian capabilities in preparation for additional offensive pushes.
Ukrainian forces strike bridge linking Kherson to Crimea
Ukrainian forces have carried out a missile strike on a bridge connecting Ukraine’s Kherson region and Crimea, Russia-appointed officials in both regions have said according to Reuters.
Vladimir Saldo, the Russia-appointed Kherson governor, said the bridge was likely to have been attacked by Storm Shadow missiles that damaged the road, but traffic has been diverted to a different route. No casualties have been reported.
Slow pace of counteroffensive ‘not emblematic’ of wider potential, ISW says
The slower than expected pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is “not emblematic” of its “wider offensive potential”, the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest analysis of the conflict, hours after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy conceded that it was proceeding “slower than desired”.
“Ukrainian forces are likely successfully setting conditions for a future main effort despite initial setbacks,” the think tank argued. It said:
Ukrainian officials have long signaled that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would be a series of gradual and sequential offensive actions and have more recently offered the observation that currently ongoing operations do not represent the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive planning
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar emphasized on June 20 that it is not useful to gauge the success of military actions based “solely by kilometers or the number of liberated settlements.”
In an interview with the BBC, Zelenskiy said he would not rush the offensive to meet western expectations. “Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It’s not. What’s at stake is people’s lives.”
He said the counteroffensive was not easy because 200,000 sq km of Ukrainian territory had been mined by Russian forces.
“Whatever some might want, including attempts to pressure us, with all due respect, we will advance on the battlefield the way we deem best,” he said.
Opening summary
Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine with me, Helen Livingstone.
The slower than expected pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is “not emblematic” of its wider offensive potential, the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest assessment of the conflict, hours after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky admitted that it was proceeding “slower than desired”.
“Ukrainian forces are likely successfully setting conditions for a future main effort despite initial setbacks,” the prominent US thinktank argued.
“Ukrainian officials have long signaled that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would be a series of gradual and sequential offensive actions and have more recently offered the observation that currently ongoing operations do not represent the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive planning.”
Zelenskiy had told the BBC that Ukraine did not wish to risk soldiers’ lives to meet international expectations. “Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It’s not,” he said.
In other developments:
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The EU pledged a further €50bn in loans and grants, while the UK and the US promised $3bn and $1.3bn respectively in financial support at a conference in London focusing on the reconstruction of Ukraine. The World Bank, in conjunction with the government of Ukraine, the European Commission and the UN, has put the cost of reconstruction and recovery at $411bn (£323bn) after a year of war.
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Delegates at the summit, from Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, to the UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, and the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said the Kremlin would ultimately foot the bill. “Let’s be clear: Russia is causing Ukraine’s destruction and Russia will eventually bear the cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction,” Blinken said.
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All Nato allies were backing a plan to give Ukraine a fast track to Nato membership of the kind offered to Sweden and Finland earlier this year, the UK foreign secretary, James Cleverly, said on the sidelines of the conference. Cleverly said the UK was “very, very supportive” of Ukraine being able to join without the usual need for it to meet the conditions set out in a Nato membership action plan (Map).
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Ukraine expects to be invited to join Nato with an “open date” at the military alliance’s summit in Vilnius next month, the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff has told a webinar held by the Atlantic Council thinktank. Andriy Yermak said the failure of the alliance to deliver a “strong” decision at the 11-12 July summit would demoralise Ukrainians and that Ukraine had demonstrated it was ready to join Nato with its fighting on the battlefield.
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The chief of mercenary group Wagner has accused the Russian defence ministry of deceiving Russians about the course of Ukraine’s offensive, pointing to Kyiv’s progress on the battlefield. “They are misleading the Russian people,” Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an audio message released by his spokespeople. “Huge chunks [of territory] have been handed over to the enemy.”
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Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, has accused opponents of waging a campaign to discredit him and force him out of office after a rift with Zelenskiy. The former boxing champion had been criticised after a public outcry over the deaths of three people locked out of an air raid shelter during a Russian attack on Kyiv this month.
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Russia’s constitutional court has rejected an attempt by rights groups to seek the repeal of a law that bans people from speaking out against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Campaigners including legal defence group OVD-Info and the banned human rights organisation Memorial had filed the case in April, saying it violated articles of Russia’s constitution including on free speech and freedom of conscience.
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EU governments agreed to an 11th package of sanctions against Russia, aimed at stopping other countries and companies from circumventing existing measures. The new package forbids transit via Russia of an expanded list of goods and technology which might aid Russia’s military or security sector.
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Putin announced that new Sarmat nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles would soon enter service. The missiles are designed to carry out nuclear strikes on targets thousands of miles away and can be launched from land, sea or air but their deployment has proceeded slower than planned.
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Russia’s top investigator, Alexander Bastrykin, told state-owned Tass news that more than 30 Ukrainians had been given long jail terms in Russian-held Ukraine for “crimes against peace and human security, including the killing of civilians”.
With Reuters and Agence France-Presse
