Key events
Here is more from Reuters on the exit polls:
Spain’s conservative opposition People’s Party (PP) was seen ahead in Sunday’s snap election, but short of an outright parliamentary majority, which it could however achieve in a potential tie-up with far-right Vox, two voter surveys showed.
A survey by GAD3 for media group Mediaset, published shortly after mainland voting ended at 8pm and based on 10,000 voter intentions collated over the course of the election campaign through Saturday, showed the PP would win 150 seats, and Vox 31.
The leftist coalition, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists, would get a combined 149 seats in the 350-seat lower chamber, GAD3 said.
Another survey, of 17,000 people by Sigma Dos pollster for the state broadcaster RTVE also showed no single party close to winning a parliamentary majority, and the combined right achieving it only at the top of the ranges provided.”
Polls closed
Polls in Spain’s snap general election have just closed. Exit polls suggest that there is no clear majority for any one party, though the PP and Vox could have enough for a majority, according to Reuters.
Given that the results of the election will likely come down to a dozen or so seats, the exit polls should be viewed cautiously. It likely won’t be until around midnight local time (11pm UK) when we have a more concrete idea of what lies ahead for Spain.
Can leftwing movement fend off far-right?
Standing firmly in the Socialists’ corner is the new Sumar movement – a platform of some 15 leftist and green parties – that is hoping to act as a bulwark against the far-right.
Led by Yolanda Díaz, the country’s 52-year-old minister of labour and the Spanish politician with the highest approval rating, Sumar has sought to appeal to the widest possible range of left-of-centre voters. Their promises include the eye-catching “universal inheritance,” which would give all young Spaniards €20,000 (£17,000) in a bid to boost social mobility.
My colleague Sam Jones has more on Sumar and Díaz here, including this fascinating quote:
When it comes to -isms, I hate putting labels on things,” Díaz said. “You’ll never find me in all that. What I am is a progressive woman who is the daughter of an anti-Franco activist who was a member of the Spanish Communist party.”
The piece notes:
Her task is not easy. Although Spain’s economy is in decent shape – the inflation rate fell to 1.9% in June – the cost of living crisis continues to bite and political disenchantment, especially on the left, is rife.”
Across Spain people have been pouring into polling stations to vote, despite the soaring summer temperatures.
In the northern Spanish town of Saldaña, officials took a break from hosting the town’s traditional Roman market to cast their votes:
With about 30 minutes left until polls close in Spain, it’s probably worth taking a look at how Spain – once widely considered to be relatively immune to far-right politics – could end up with Vox as part of its central government.
Analysts link the fortunes of the far-right Vox party, founded almost a decade ago by disenchanted PP members, to the failed push for Catalan independence some six years ago.
As Spain grappled with its worst political and territorial crisis in decades, it “awakened a long-dormant strain of nationalism,” my colleague Sam Jones writes in this piece exploring the rise of Vox.
Add to that the social, economic and demographic factors in play in Spain and many other European countries – ageing populations, fears about immigration, and digital and equality revolutions that have left many people feeling left behind – and the conditions for Vox were ripe.”
‘The Rock and the hard right’
Residents of Gibraltar will be among those watching tonight’s election result closely, as the outcome could have far-reaching impact on their lives.
The Brexit withdrawal agreement, announced on Christmas Eve 2020, did not cover Gibraltar. Instead the tiny territory’s post-Brexit fate has been the subject of more than a dozen rounds of talks between the EU and the UK.
The talks are ongoing. But if tonight’s government ends up being a coalition between the PP and Vox, as polls suggest, it could complicate efforts to end Gibraltar’s post-Brexit limbo.
In the lead-up to regional and municipal elections in May, the Vox leader, Santiago Abascal, argued that any deal with the UK that did not recognise Spanish sovereignty over the British territory would be “an act of betrayal against Spain”.
I delved into what is at risk for the Rock this weekend in a piece for the Observer:
I would be very concerned that an eventual rightwing government would seek to block the treaty over ideological interests that are weighed down by – let’s say it clearly – vestiges of Francoism,” Jesús Verdú Baeza, a law professor at the University of Cádiz told me.
The far-right party Vox is not expected to come in first or second place in this election. Polls suggest it is even poised to lose some of the 52 seats it currently holds in Spain’s parliament.
Even so, the party – which has long railed against feminism, LGBT+ rights and Muslim immigration – has dominated the conversation during this election.
Led by 47-year-old Santiago Abascal, the party could emerge as kingmaker in tonight’s election, if polls are to be believed. If so, it will breathe new life into the party’s promises to eradicate Spanish laws on abortion and euthanasia, abolish regional autonomy and parliaments as well as set up a naval blockade to prevent irregular migrants from arriving at the country’s shores.
The third generation of politicians in his family, Abascal joined the PP at the age of 18. In 2013, disenchanted with the party’s handling of corruption and separatism, he founded Vox with several other former PP members.
The party has gone on to forge close ties with the far-right across Europe; Abascal has turned up at summits with France’s Marine Le Pen, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, who earlier this month made a videolink appearance at a Vox rally in Valencia.
Pointing to governments in Italy, Finland, Sweden, Poland and the Czech Republic, Meloni told the rally that the time had come for “patriots” to take power.
For all of us it is crucial that on 23 July a conservative patriotic alternative is established, in which Vox plays a leading and decisive role in the formation of the new national government,” she added.
The man expected to win tonight
When people seek to describe Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the leader of the PP and the man tipped to win tonight’s election, the word boring often comes up.
“The boring guy who wins every election by a landslide,” is how an Associated Press headline recently described him, while a Reuters profile was swift to note his “reputation for dullness”.
It’s an image that Feijóo has sought to nurture since taking the reins of the PP some 16 months ago. “I know this speech might sound boring or old-fashioned but I’m sorry, I believe politics isn’t a fashion or reality show,” he told a rally last year in the lead up to regional elections in Andalusia.
Relatively unknown outside of Spain, Feijóo made the jump into politics at the age of 41 after a successful career as a high-ranking civil servant. He was elected to lead the northwestern region of Galicia in 2009, racking up four absolute majorities in the regional parliament.
His push to paint himself as a moderate, however, stands in contrast to his party’s willingness to forge municipal and regional governments with the far-right.
My colleague Sam Jones has this piece with more background on Feijóo:
Much has been made of his calm, understated demeanour – especially in contrast to the slick, telegenic and sometimes unpredictable charms of Sánchez,” writes Sam.
He adds: “Despite his low-key image, Feijóo has not always managed to avoid scandal.The publication 10 years ago of photographs showing him on holiday in the mid-1990s with a friend who was later convicted of drug trafficking led to calls for him to step down as Galicia’s president.
Despite efforts by politicians to paint Spain’s snap election as a stark choice between the left and right blocs, it appears it wasn’t enough to convince some voters.
At 6pm local time, turnout for the snap general election stood at 53%, down from 56.85% recorded at the same time in the previous November 2019 election, according to data from the country’s interior ministry.
Some of this can be blamed on the extreme heat gripping parts of the country, others pointed to the fact that the election comes at a time when many in Spain are on vacation.
One man found a creative way to express his frustration at being called to vote during his vacation:
Some nuts and bolts about tonight’s vote.
Polls will close at 8pm local time (7pm UK time) We expect exit polls shortly after that.
Given that the results of the election will likely come down to a dozen or so seats, the exit polls should be viewed cautiously. It likely won’t be until around midnight local time (11pm UK) when we have an idea of what lies ahead for Spain.
There are a few potential outcomes, all of which suggest that weeks or months of complex negotiations lay ahead for Spain. The most likely is that the PP and Vox could together earn the 176 seats needed to govern the country’s 350-seat parliament.
If so, the result would pave the way for a shift to the hard right following the Socialists’ push to advance transgender rights, access to abortion and menstrual leave.
If PP and Vox fall short of this threshold, the Socialists could forge an alliance with Sumar, a grouping of 15 leftist parties, as well as a handful of smaller regional parties in order to govern.
And if the vote yields a fragmented result that makes it impossible for the parties to strike deals, it could mean fresh elections for Spain in 2024.
Will Pedro Sánchez’s gamble pay off?
This election – called by Spain’s Socialist prime minister hours after his party suffered a drubbing in May’s regional and municipal elections – came as a surprise to most in the country.
It was a high stakes gamble, even for a politician known for embracing risk. Pedro Sánchez, 51, has proven himself to be among Europe’s most resilient politicians; riding a grassroots insurgency to return to power after he was ousted as leader of his party and going on to become the first politician in Spain to topple a sitting government using a no-confidence motion.
The election might be his riskiest bet to-date, with Sánchez hoping that the rash of deals forged in recent weeks between the PP and Vox in dozens of municipalities and a handful of regions would help mobilise leftwing voters.
It remains to be seen whether it will be enough. Sánchez’s reliance on support from separatists to govern and swing to the left as his party sought common ground with coalition partner Podemos have proven deeply unpopular with many in Spain, while his opponents have sought to portray him as a man willing to cling to power at any cost.
It’s election day in Spain
Good evening and buenas tardes to those following the results of Spain’s snap general election. I’m Ashifa Kassam in Madrid and I – along with Guardian colleague Sam Jones – will be bringing you all the latest from Spain’s hard-fought general election.
The snap election, called two months ago by Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, is being closely watched across Europe and much of the world; polls suggest that it could yield the far-right’s first foray into central government since the death of dictator Francisco Franco.
The opposition conservative People’s party (PP) is expected to win the election, but polls suggest it will fall short of the 176 seats needed for a majority in the country’s 350-seat parliament. If so, the party, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, will likely need to strike a deal with the far-right Vox party in order to govern the eurozone’s fourth largest economy.
The final outcome of tonight’s election is anyone’s guess. The last week of campaigning saw the PP frontrunner, Núñez Feijóo, called out over untrue claims on pensions, criticised for remarks seen as sexist and stumble as he sought to explain his ties to a man convicted of drug trafficking.
As a result, the Socialists began pointing to a resurgence of the left. This morning Sánchez was among the first candidates to cast his ballot, telling reporters that the election was giving him “good vibes”.
Will the country’s 37 million or so eligible voters prove him right? Stay tuned.
